Parlay

Search live prediction markets and event contracts across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless (real-money) and Manifold (sentiment). Use for queries on election odds, political markets, Fed rate decisions, crypto prices, sports outcomes, geopolitics, and other binary markets with crowd-sourced probabilities. Returns unified results with title, current probability, volume, liquidity, expiration, source venue, and risk flags. For topic synthesis use `market_brief`; for browsing trending markets use `discover_markets`.

Browse trending, high-volume, fast-moving, or high-disagreement prediction markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Manifold. Use when the user wants to explore what's happening — "what's hot on Polymarket today", "show me biggest political markets", "what events are ending soon" — rather than search a specific topic. Filter by category and sort by volume, newest, or ending soon.

Compare the same event contract across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless side-by-side: probability, liquidity, settlement rules, and venue type. Use when the user wants to know "what's the spread between Polymarket and Kalshi on X" or "which venue has better liquidity for Y". Returns match confidence buckets (high/medium/low) and explains any mismatches. Real-money venues only — Manifold is excluded because play-money pricing isn't comparable to real-money.

Surface cross-venue price discrepancies between Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless as a discovery feed for price discovery and divergence detection. Default threshold is 0.5% spread, below typical round-trip fees — most results are informational, not tradable arbitrage. Raise `min_spread` to 0.03+ for after-fee opportunities. The optional `query` parameter post-filters results by topic keywords on event titles — it does not perform a topic search; for topic-driven retrieval use `discover_markets` or `search_markets`. Pairs with missing volume data on at least one venue are flagged 'volume_unconfirmed'. All results are indicative only — not trade recommendations. Real-money venues only. Orderbook depth is not confirmed in Phase 1.

Generate a synthesized brief for a topic, combining real-money signals from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless with Manifold community sentiment. Use for analytical queries like "what do markets think about the 2028 election", "odds on a Fed rate cut", or "how is crypto priced for year-end". Returns top markets by volume, cross-venue divergences, venue coverage, and risk flags. For raw market lists use `search_markets`.

Inspect a single named venue. Returns available capabilities, market data for the query, and metadata quality flags. Use when the user explicitly names a venue — "show me Polymarket markets on AI", "what's on Kalshi for Q4 inflation", "Manifold markets about geopolitics". For cross-venue queries use `search_markets` or `compare_markets`.